You can’t jump start a trend by trying to influence highly social people, aka “the influentials,” according to Duncan Watts, a Columbia University network theory scientist currently working for Yahoo Labs. Nor can anyone predict or engineer trends, he says. The complex network effects on society mean that trends occur randomly.
In an article in this month’s Fast Company (“is the Tipping Point Toast?”) Watts also says,” If society is ready to embrace a trend, almost anyone can start one — and if it isn’t then almost no one can.”
Talk about challenging word of mouth and influencer marketing assumptions with scientific data
If Watts’ research is right, what does it mean to marketers? A few thoughts…
1. How do we become better at quickly yet deeply understanding our markets and the head set of customers to see if our ideas and products fit within their context and their “readiness” to embrace a trend, a new way of doing business, a message? I’ve seen so many companies try to push a “transformational” product to a customer base that wasn’t interested or ready to be transformed. It reminds me something the late producer Louis Mayer once allegedly said, ” If people don’t want to come, there’s nothing we can do to stop them.” By the time traditional market research identifies a trend, the trend may be waning or over. Maybe online communities are the best way to spot changes. Or new unstructured data analysis of online conversations.
2. What are the best way to understand the life cycle of trends and tap into them to help our brands and businesses? How can we use new tools to spot trends early? At what point in the trend cycle does it make sense to invest money and ride the trend? At what point is the trend waning and we’d be better off not riding the final wave of a trend?
3. How do we redefine success? The goal of leading the next blockbuster trend, as Watts points out, is unrealistic; the world is too complex to even be able to predict how trends occur never mind think our company can consciously lead the wave. Having the biggest social network doesn’t mean your social network is meaningful and successful. Having a gazillion hits to your blog doesn’t mean the blog is achieving your goals.
And so aiming to be a big part of the next big thing may just be foolish,